Some may have noticed that there was quite abit of a kerfuffle this year with chinese military leadership, and Bloomberg has a really good article on it..
(may be paywalled for you...)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... corruption
There is a very nicely done summary/analysis/opinion piece on this channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oupSYGUL0dE
Tldr version:
Chinese military pretty much as corrupt as the Russian one.
Missiles turn out to be 'fueled' with water, Silo doors are not functional, rampant misuse of material (aircraft and missile fuel used for cooking).
And these are just the things that made their way out.
I agree mostly with the opinion stated in the video - China has always been a very cautious military nation, living the principle to never wage a war they have not won before the shooting starts. Any planned attack on Taiwan would have to be one of the 'three day' invasion styles, or China would face massive issues.
Given the rampant issues, and the fact that they have witnessed in the last two year of the failed Russian invasion how many issues this would cause in an active campain, any invasion of Taiwan will only take place once they went over their military with a very fine-toothed one.
The only point I disagree is regarding the conclusion:
The point that China is facing a demografic nightmare even worse of the one looming over Russia is pretty much putting a hard time limit on any attack on Taiwan is true, but I do not agree with the conclusion that this means China will shelve the idea. I see a 50-50 potential that it means they will attack sooner, as right now, the West is literally involved in 3 wars - Ukraine, Gaza and the Houti raids. The remaining hot phase of the Gaza conflict is not going to last any longer than a couple more months, so there is another timer ticking.
Then there is the Us election, which is also causing distress in the Western alliance.
While Trump in the White House might be somewhat better for china, the US has too much investment in Taiwan to not get involved on their behalf, even the most hardline Trumpists know that.
(may be paywalled for you...)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... corruption
There is a very nicely done summary/analysis/opinion piece on this channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oupSYGUL0dE
Tldr version:
Chinese military pretty much as corrupt as the Russian one.
Missiles turn out to be 'fueled' with water, Silo doors are not functional, rampant misuse of material (aircraft and missile fuel used for cooking).
And these are just the things that made their way out.
I agree mostly with the opinion stated in the video - China has always been a very cautious military nation, living the principle to never wage a war they have not won before the shooting starts. Any planned attack on Taiwan would have to be one of the 'three day' invasion styles, or China would face massive issues.
Given the rampant issues, and the fact that they have witnessed in the last two year of the failed Russian invasion how many issues this would cause in an active campain, any invasion of Taiwan will only take place once they went over their military with a very fine-toothed one.
The only point I disagree is regarding the conclusion:
The point that China is facing a demografic nightmare even worse of the one looming over Russia is pretty much putting a hard time limit on any attack on Taiwan is true, but I do not agree with the conclusion that this means China will shelve the idea. I see a 50-50 potential that it means they will attack sooner, as right now, the West is literally involved in 3 wars - Ukraine, Gaza and the Houti raids. The remaining hot phase of the Gaza conflict is not going to last any longer than a couple more months, so there is another timer ticking.
Then there is the Us election, which is also causing distress in the Western alliance.
While Trump in the White House might be somewhat better for china, the US has too much investment in Taiwan to not get involved on their behalf, even the most hardline Trumpists know that.
Statistics: Posted by LaCroix — 2024-01-13 03:22pm